Market Note: High-Purity Crystalline Silicon Market

Written By Gideon Gartner

Polysilicon Manufacturing Sector

Title: Silicon metal

Definition

The polysilicon manufacturing sector produces the ultra-high purity (9N to 11N+) polycrystalline silicon that serves as the feedstock for monocrystalline ingot and wafer production. Key players include Wacker Chemie, OCI, Hemlock Semiconductor, REC Silicon, Tongwei Group, GCL-Poly, Daqo New Energy, East Hope Group, Xinte Energy, and Asia Silicon.

Importance and Value

Polysilicon is the critical starting material for the entire semiconductor silicon supply chain. Manufacturers in this sector specialize in the Siemens process or fluidized bed reactor (FBR) technology to achieve the exceptional purity required for semiconductor applications. Their ability to cost-effectively produce high volumes of polysilicon with consistent quality underpins the growth and advancement of the semiconductor industry.

Market Size

The global polysilicon market size was estimated at USD 6.5 billion in 2021 and is projected to grow to USD 18.6 billion by 2030, driven by surging demand from the semiconductor and solar PV industries.

Title: Monocrystalline ingot , Silicon Carbide

Monocrystalline Ingot & Wafer Sector

Definition

The monocrystalline ingot and wafer sector converts polysilicon into single-crystal silicon ingots using the Czochralski (CZ) method. Key players include SUMCO, Shin-Etsu Chemical, GlobalWafers, Siltronic, Asia Silicon Qinghai, and Runtu. The ingots are sliced into wafers, polished, and supplied to chip manufacturers.

Importance and Value

Monocrystalline silicon wafers are the fundamental building block upon which semiconductor devices are fabricated. Wafer size, purity, crystalline perfection, flatness, and surface quality are critical parameters that enable chip makers to produce ever more advanced and densely packed integrated circuits. Suppliers' ability to scale up wafer size while tightly controlling properties is crucial to enabling semiconductor technology roadmaps.

Market Size

The global silicon wafer market size was USD 13.4 billion in 2021 and is forecast to reach USD 28.7 billion by 2030, propelled by demand for advanced logic and memory chips in consumer electronics, data centers, automotive, and industrial applications.

Specialty Silicon Materials Sector

Definition

The specialty silicon materials sector supplies various high-purity silicon-based materials, chemicals, and additives used in semiconductor manufacturing. Products include silicon metal, silicon oxide, silicon nitride, silanes, and doping agents like boron, phosphorus, arsenic, and antimony.

Importance and Value

While not as large as the polysilicon and wafer sectors, specialty silicon materials suppliers play an important enabling role by providing the high-purity ancillary materials essential for chip fabrication processes like crystal growth, doping, deposition, patterning, and packaging. Their products are critical to achieving desired electrical properties, defect control, reliability, and performance of semiconductor devices.

Market Size

The global high-purity silicon materials market size was around USD 1.5 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow steadily at a CAGR of 5-7% through 2030, in line with the overall semiconductor materials market expansion.

Bottom Line

The high-purity crystalline silicon market comprises three key sectors that together form the critical foundation of the semiconductor industry supply chain:

  1. Polysilicon Manufacturing: Produces the ultra-high purity (9N to 11N+) polycrystalline silicon feedstock using the Siemens process or fluidized bed reactor (FBR) technology. Estimated market size of USD 18.6 billion by 2030.

  2. Monocrystalline Ingot & Wafer Production: Converts polysilicon into single-crystal silicon ingots using the Czochralski (CZ) method, which are then sliced into polished wafers. Forecast market size of USD 28.7 billion by 2030.

  3. Specialty Silicon Materials: Supplies various high-purity silicon-based materials, chemicals, and additives used in semiconductor manufacturing, such as silicon metal, silicon oxide, silicon nitride, and doping agents. Expected market size of around USD 3 billion by 2030.

The ability of suppliers in these sectors to consistently deliver high-purity, high-precision, and high-volume silicon materials is crucial to enabling the semiconductor industry's relentless drive to produce ever more advanced and complex integrated circuits.

Driven by the rapid digitalization of the global economy and the proliferation of semiconductor-intensive applications like 5G, AI, IoT, and electric vehicles, the combined market size for these high-purity silicon sectors is projected to exceed USD 50 billion by 2030, representing significant growth opportunities for leading suppliers.

However, the capital-intensive nature of these businesses, the technical challenges of scaling to larger wafer sizes, and the geopolitical tensions surrounding the semiconductor supply chain mean that market consolidation, vertical integration, and strategic partnerships are likely to remain key industry dynamics over the next decade.

Strategic Planning Assumptions

Based on the strategic planning assumptions and scenario analysis, the future of the silicon carbide (SiC) ingot market looks promising, with significant growth potential driven by the accelerating global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and the expanding adoption of SiC in power electronics applications. As governments worldwide strengthen policies to decarbonize industries and promote EV adoption, the demand for both black and green SiC is expected to surge. Advancements in manufacturing technologies, such as electric arc furnaces and crystal growth methods, will likely reduce production costs and improve yields, making SiC more competitive with traditional silicon-based solutions. This cost reduction, combined with the superior performance characteristics of SiC, will open up new market opportunities in high-voltage, high-frequency, and harsh environment applications across sectors like smart grid, aerospace, and defense.

However, the path to widespread adoption is not without challenges. The SiC industry will need to navigate potential supply chain bottlenecks, intensifying competition from alternative wide bandgap materials like gallium nitride (GaN) and diamond, and geopolitical risks that could impact market dynamics. The most likely scenario for the SiC ingot market envisions rapid but uneven growth across regions, with East Asia leading the charge as EVs approach cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles. In this scenario, SiC proves its value proposition in an expanding range of voltage, frequency, and application domains, offsetting a modest loss of market share to GaN and diamond in select niches.

The global SiC ingot market is projected to grow at an impressive CAGR of 35-40% through 2035, potentially reaching USD 8-10 billion. This growth will be primarily driven by the SiC Surge scenario (60% probability), characterized by bullish EV adoption and power electronics proliferation, combined with sustained cost and performance advantages over alternatives. However, there is also a significant possibility (30%) of a Competitive Co-existence scenario, where SiC, GaN, and emerging options like diamond each carve out significant, complementary positions in an enlarged market based on best-fit use cases and application-specific optimizations. A less likely but still plausible Growth Moderation scenario (10% probability) could occur if EV uptake, technological challenges, supply constraints, or alternative material breakthroughs dampen SiC growth to a CAGR of 20-25% through 2035.

Black Silicon Carbide SPAs:

  1. Because advancements in electric arc furnace technology and increasing use of renewables in production will reduce costs, black SiC production costs will decrease by 20% by 2030, with a 75% probability, improving its competitiveness in metallurgical and refractory applications.

  2. As strengthening government policies to decarbonize the steel industry drive demand, there will be a 30% increase in demand for black SiC as a sustainable raw material by 2032, with a 65% probability.

  3. With the development of novel high-performance refractory products using black SiC, its addressable market will expand by 25% by 2035, with a 55% probability.

Black SiC Scenarios

  1. Steady Growth (60% probability): Due to consistent adoption driven by incremental process improvements, supportive sustainability policies, and new application development, the market will experience steady growth.

  2. Accelerated Transition (30% probability): As breakthrough technologies and aggressive emissions reduction mandates take effect, faster than expected demand growth and market expansion will occur.

  3. Stagnation (10% probability): Because of slower than anticipated progress in cost and performance, along with relaxed decarbonization timelines, the market will experience tepid growth.

Green Silicon Carbide SPAs

  1. As the accelerating global push for vehicle electrification propels demand, SiC power device demand will grow at a 55% CAGR through 2035, with an 80% probability.

  2. With advances in crystal growth and wafering improving yields and reducing costs, SiC substrate costs will decrease by 40% by 2030, with a 70% probability, making it more competitive with Si in power electronics.

  3. Because the commercialization of high-voltage (10-20 kV) and high-frequency (>10 MHz) SiC power devices will open up new markets, a $5B market in smart grid, aerospace, and defense applications will emerge by 2032, with a 60% probability.

Green SiC Scenarios

  1. Rapid Electrification (70% probability): As faster than expected EV adoption worldwide combines with steady advances in SiC technology and manufacturing, a step-change in demand will occur.

  2. Baseline Growth (25% probability): With EV uptake and SiC technology development proceeding at a moderate pace, the market will experience strong but more gradual expansion.

  3. Intensified Competition (5% probability): Because of faster than anticipated progress in alternative wide bandgap semiconductors like GaN and diamond, increased competitive pressures will limit SiC market share growth.

Overall SiC Ingot Market SPA

  1. Driven by accelerating electrification and expanding adoption in power electronics, yet tempered by potential supply chain bottlenecks, technological competition, and geopolitical risks, the global SiC ingot market will grow at a 35-40% CAGR through 2035, reaching USD 8-10 billion, with a 70% probability. The most likely scenario envisions rapid but uneven growth across regions, with East Asia leading, as EVs approach cost parity and SiC proves its value proposition in an expanding range of voltage, frequency and application domains, offsetting a modest loss of market share to GaN and diamond in select niches.

Overall Market Scenarios

  1. SiC Surge (60% probability): As bullish EV adoption and power electronics proliferation combine with sustained cost and performance advantages over alternatives, SiC will capture a dominant share of a rapidly expanding pie.

  2. Competitive Co-existence (30% probability): Based on best-fit use cases and application-specific optimizations, SiC, GaN and emerging options like diamond will each carve out significant, complementary positions in an enlarged market.

  3. Growth Moderation (10% probability): Due to slower than expected EV uptake, technological challenges, supply constraints, or alternative material breakthroughs, SiC growth will be dampened to a CAGR of 20-25% through 2035.

Appendix of Vendors

Appendix: Key Vendors in the SiC Ingot Market

  1. Black Silicon Carbide (SiC) Vendors

    • Saint-Gobain

    • Washington Mills

    • Ningxia Jinjing

    • Lanzhou Heqiao

    • Ningxia Tianjing

    • Tianzhu Yutong

    • Foshan RISING Technology

    • Futong Industry

    • Cumi Murugappa

    • Elsid

    • Erdos

    • Ningxia Shenzhou

    • Zaporozhsky Abrasivny Combinat

    • Yakushima Denko

    • Elmet

    • Snam Abrasives

    • Navarro

    • ESK-SIC

    • ESD-SIC

    • Ningxia Jiyuan

  2. Green Silicon Carbide (SiC) Vendors

    • Cree (Wolfspeed)

    • II-VI Advanced Materials

    • Rohm

    • Infineon

    • STMicroelectronics

    • ON Semiconductor

    • Fuji Electric

    • Mitsubishi Electric

    • Hitachi Power Semiconductor Device

    • GeneSiC Semiconductor

    • Ascatron

    • Norstel

    • SICC

    • TankeBlue

    • SiCrystal

    • GTAT Technologies

    • Dow

    • Ningbo Huitai New Materials Technology

    • Hebei Synlight Crystal

  3. SiC Substrate and Wafer Vendors

    • Cree (Wolfspeed)

    • II-VI Advanced Materials

    • SiCrystal

    • SK Siltron

    • GTAT Technologies

    • Norstel

    • SICC

    • TankeBlue

    • Xiamen Powerway Advanced Material

    • Showa Denko

    • TISICS

  4. SiC Power Device Vendors

    • Cree (Wolfspeed)

    • Rohm

    • Infineon

    • STMicroelectronics

    • ON Semiconductor

    • Fuji Electric

    • Mitsubishi Electric

    • Hitachi Power Semiconductor Device

    • GeneSiC Semiconductor

    • Ascatron

    • UnitedSiC

    • Microchip

    • Littelfuse

    • Toshiba

    • Semikron

  5. SiC Power Module Vendors

    • Cree (Wolfspeed)

    • Rohm

    • Infineon

    • Mitsubishi Electric

    • Fuji Electric

    • Hitachi Power Semiconductor Device

    • Semikron

    • Danfoss

    • Starpower

    • Imperix

Gideon Gartner https://GartnorGroup.com
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