Market Report: Smartphone Component Advantages and Future Predictions
GartnorGroup Report: Smartphone Component Advantages and Future Predictions
As a leading research firm in the technology sector, GartnorGroup has conducted an in-depth analysis of the smartphone market, focusing on the key components that drive innovation and competitive advantage. This report aims to assist purchasing agents in making informed decisions by providing insights into the relative strengths of smartphone components and their expected development trajectories.
Our Strategic Planning Assumptions indicate that the smartphone industry is on the cusp of significant advancements in Application Processor (SoC) technology. We predict that by 2026, major players like Apple, Samsung, and Qualcomm will have successfully transitioned to 3nm or smaller process nodes, resulting in a 30% performance increase and a 20% reduction in power consumption compared to current 5nm chips. Furthermore, we anticipate that Apple will leverage its in-house chip design capabilities to introduce a neuromorphic computing-based SoC by 2028, offering a 50% improvement in AI processing efficiency. Purchasing agents should closely monitor these developments and consider the long-term advantages of partnering with vendors that have strong chip design and manufacturing capabilities.
In the camera system domain, our Strategic Planning Assumptions point towards a significant uptake of periscope-style telephoto lenses, with 50% of flagship smartphones expected to feature this technology by 2025. This will enable a new level of optical zoom capabilities, reaching 10x or higher, without compromising device form factors. We also predict that Samsung will take the lead in introducing a 200MP main camera sensor in its flagship devices by 2024, setting a new standard for image resolution. Additionally, the integration of dedicated AI co-processors for image processing is expected to become mainstream by 2027, with Apple and Google likely to leverage their expertise in computational photography to drive innovation in this area.
Display technology is another critical battleground, with our Strategic Planning Assumptions indicating that OLED panels will continue to dominate the high-end smartphone market. We predict that by 2024, 90% of flagship devices will feature OLED displays with peak brightness levels of 1,500 nits or higher, a 50% increase over current levels. This will greatly enhance the user experience, particularly in outdoor viewing conditions. Furthermore, we expect Samsung to maintain its leadership in display technology, with the company likely to introduce the first smartphone featuring a variable refresh rate ranging from 10Hz to 240Hz by 2026, offering significant benefits in terms of power efficiency and user experience.
5G connectivity is set to become a key differentiator, with our Strategic Planning Assumptions suggesting that 90% of 5G smartphones will support both sub-6GHz and mmWave frequencies by 2025. This will enable seamless connectivity across different network deployments and unlock new use cases such as high-quality mobile VR streaming. We predict that Qualcomm will maintain its leadership in 5G modem technology, with the company likely to introduce a modem capable of achieving downlink speeds of 10 Gbps and uplink speeds of 1 Gbps by 2027. Purchasing agents should factor in the 5G capabilities of smartphones when making procurement decisions, as this technology will become increasingly critical for future-proofing devices.
Battery life and charging speed are also expected to see significant improvements, with our Strategic Planning Assumptions indicating that 70% of smartphones will support wired charging speeds of at least 100W by 2026. This will enable users to charge their devices from 0% to 50% in just 10 minutes, greatly enhancing the user experience. We also predict that major battery manufacturers like LG Chem and CATL will introduce graphene-enhanced battery technology by 2027, offering a 30% increase in capacity and a 25% reduction in charging time compared to current lithium-ion batteries.
In terms of biometric security, our Strategic Planning Assumptions suggest that under-display fingerprint sensors will become the norm, with 90% of smartphones expected to feature this technology by 2025. We anticipate that Qualcomm will introduce a new 3D ultrasonic fingerprint sensor that offers improved accuracy and speed compared to current solutions. Additionally, we predict that Apple will continue to lead in facial recognition technology, with the company likely to introduce a new TrueDepth camera system that enables secure face authentication even in low-light conditions.
Wireless connectivity is another area where we expect to see significant advancements, with our Strategic Planning Assumptions indicating that Wi-Fi 6E will become standard in 95% of smartphones by 2024. This will enable faster and more reliable connectivity, particularly in congested environments. We also predict that Ultra-Wideband (UWB) technology will see widespread adoption, with 70% of smartphones expected to feature a UWB chip by 2026. This will enable new use cases such as precise indoor navigation and secure device-to-device communication. Purchasing agents should consider the wireless connectivity options offered by different smartphones and prioritize devices that support the latest standards.
Finally, our Strategic Planning Assumptions point towards significant advancements in smartphone sensors and haptics. We predict that 90% of smartphones will include a high-resolution 3D Time-of-Flight (ToF) sensor by 2025, enabling advanced AR capabilities and improved depth mapping for photography. We also anticipate that Apple will leverage its acquisition of Primesense to introduce a new generation of 3D sensors that offer unparalleled accuracy and range. In the haptics domain, we expect Qualcomm to introduce a new generation of its Snapdragon Sense ID technology, offering localized and programmable haptic feedback for a more immersive user experience.
The smartphone industry is poised for significant advancements across multiple component areas, with leading vendors like Apple, Samsung, Qualcomm, and others driving innovation through strategic acquisitions, in-house development, and partnerships. Purchasing agents should closely monitor these developments and prioritize devices that offer the most advanced and future-proof technologies. By doing so, they can ensure that their organizations stay ahead of the curve and benefit from the latest advancements in smartphone capabilities.
Strategic Planning Assumptions (SPAs) by Component Category
Application Processor (SoC)
By 2026, major players like Apple, Samsung, and Qualcomm will have successfully transitioned to 3nm or smaller process nodes, resulting in a 30% performance increase and a 20% reduction in power consumption compared to current 5nm chips.
Apple will leverage its in-house chip design capabilities to introduce a neuromorphic computing-based SoC by 2028, offering a 50% improvement in AI processing efficiency.
Camera System
By 2025, 50% of flagship smartphones will feature periscope-style telephoto lenses, enabling optical zoom capabilities of 10x or higher.
Samsung will take the lead in introducing a 200MP main camera sensor in its flagship devices by 2024, setting a new standard for image resolution.
The integration of dedicated AI co-processors for image processing is expected to become mainstream by 2027, with Apple and Google likely to leverage their expertise in computational photography to drive innovation in this area.
Display
By 2024, 90% of flagship devices will feature OLED displays with peak brightness levels of 1,500 nits or higher, a 50% increase over current levels.
Samsung is likely to introduce the first smartphone featuring a variable refresh rate ranging from 10Hz to 240Hz by 2026, offering significant benefits in terms of power efficiency and user experience.
5G Modem
By 2025, 90% of 5G smartphones will support both sub-6GHz and mmWave frequencies, enabling seamless connectivity across different network deployments.
Qualcomm will maintain its leadership in 5G modem technology, with the company likely to introduce a modem capable of achieving downlink speeds of 10 Gbps and uplink speeds of 1 Gbps by 2027.
Battery and Charging
By 2026, 70% of smartphones will support wired charging speeds of at least 100W, enabling users to charge their devices from 0% to 50% in just 10 minutes.
Major battery manufacturers like LG Chem and CATL will introduce graphene-enhanced battery technology by 2027, offering a 30% increase in capacity and a 25% reduction in charging time compared to current lithium-ion batteries.
Biometric Security
By 2025, 90% of smartphones will feature under-display fingerprint sensors.
Qualcomm will introduce a new 3D ultrasonic fingerprint sensor that offers improved accuracy and speed compared to current solutions.
Apple will continue to lead in facial recognition technology, with the company likely to introduce a new TrueDepth camera system that enables secure face authentication even in low-light conditions.
Wireless Connectivity
Wi-Fi 6E will become standard in 95% of smartphones by 2024, enabling faster and more reliable connectivity, particularly in congested environments.
Ultra-Wideband (UWB) technology will see widespread adoption, with 70% of smartphones expected to feature a UWB chip by 2026, enabling new use cases such as precise indoor navigation and secure device-to-device communication.
Sensors and Haptics
By 2025, 90% of smartphones will include a high-resolution 3D Time-of-Flight (ToF) sensor, enabling advanced AR capabilities and improved depth mapping for photography.
Apple will leverage its acquisition of Primesense to introduce a new generation of 3D sensors that offer unparalleled accuracy and range.
Qualcomm will introduce a new generation of its Snapdragon Sense ID technology, offering localized and programmable haptic feedback for a more immersive user experience.