Research Note: Global Smartphone Market Outlook 2024-2028
The global smartphone market is showing signs of recovery after several challenging years. According to IDC, worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 4.0% year-over-year in 2024 to 1.21 billion units. This growth comes after a period of decline, with shipments dropping 3.2% in 2023. The recovery is driven by improving consumer demand, the ongoing transition to 5G devices, and the introduction of AI-enabled smartphones. Canalys projects even stronger growth, forecasting a 5% increase in global smartphone shipments for 2024.
Regional dynamics reveal varying growth patterns across different markets. While mature markets like North America and Western Europe are experiencing slower growth, emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Africa are showing more robust expansion. India, in particular, is expected to be a key growth driver, with its smartphone market projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.3% between 2023 and 2028. China, despite facing economic headwinds, remains the world's largest smartphone market and is crucial to the global industry's performance.
The competitive landscape of the smartphone market continues to evolve. Apple led the market in Q4 2023 with a 24% share of shipments, followed closely by Samsung. Chinese brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo are gaining ground, particularly in emerging markets. The rise of AI-enabled smartphones is expected to shake up the market further, with IDC forecasting that 170 million next-gen AI smartphones will be shipped in 2024, representing almost 15% of the total smartphone market.
Key trends shaping the smartphone market include the rapid adoption of 5G technology, increasing focus on sustainable and repairable devices, and the integration of advanced AI capabilities. The demand for high-end smartphones with premium features remains strong, while the mid-range segment is becoming increasingly competitive. Foldable smartphones are gaining traction, with the market expected to grow at a CAGR of 25.7% between 2023 and 2033.
Looking ahead, the smartphone market faces both opportunities and challenges. While the overall growth trajectory is positive, factors such as economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions could impact market dynamics. The increasing importance of AI in smartphones is expected to drive innovation and potentially reshape user experiences. Gartner predicts that by 2025, 80% of smartphones shipped will have on-device AI capabilities. As the industry continues to evolve, manufacturers will need to focus on innovation, sustainability, and addressing changing consumer preferences to maintain growth and market share.
Sources:
International Data Corporation (IDC)
"Worldwide Smartphone Shipments Forecast to Recover with 4.0% Growth in 2024, According to IDC"
Published: May 30, 2024
Canalys
"Global smartphone market starts 2024 strongly with 11% growth in Q1"
Published: April 15, 2024
Statista
"Smartphones - Worldwide | Statista Market Forecast"
Accessed: October 2024
Gartner
"Forecast Analysis: PCs, Tablets and Mobile Phones, Worldwide"
Published: May 1, 2024
Future Market Insights
"Foldable Phone Market Size, Share, Trends & Forecast | FMI"
Accessed: October 2024
Mordor Intelligence
"Smartphone Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2024-2029)"
Accessed: October 2024
Counterpoint Research
"Global Smartphone Shipments Growth Forecast for 2024 Raised to 5%"
Published: August 29, 2024
TechInsights
"Smartphone Market Analysis and Forecast"
Accessed: October 2024
IDC Blog
"The Future of Next-Gen AI Smartphones"
Published: February 19, 2024
Canalys
"Canalys forecasts: Smartphone market to recover with 4% growth in 2024"
Published: November 22, 2023