Market Note: Smart Phone Components
1. Display
By 2026, 80% of premium smartphones will feature variable refresh rate OLED displays (1-120Hz), optimizing battery life and user experience, with a 95% probability.
Under-display camera technology will be present in 30% of flagship models by 2026, eliminating the need for notches or punch-holes, with an 85% probability.
Foldable displays will account for 15% of the premium smartphone market by 2026, driving changes in supply chain and manufacturing processes, with an 80% probability.
Advanced anti-reflective and anti-fingerprint coatings will be standard on 70% of all smartphone displays by 2026, improving outdoor visibility and user satisfaction, with a 90% probability.
Micro-LED display technology will begin to appear in ultra-premium smartphones by late 2026, offering improved brightness and energy efficiency, with a 60% probability.
2. Processor/SoC (System on a Chip)
3nm process node chips will power 50% of flagship smartphones by 2026, offering significant performance and efficiency gains, with a 90% probability.
Dedicated AI processors will be standard in 80% of new smartphones across all price ranges by 2026, enabling advanced on-device AI capabilities, with a 95% probability.
Heterogeneous computing architectures, combining CPU, GPU, and NPU on a single chip, will be present in 70% of smartphone SoCs by 2026, optimizing performance and power consumption, with an 85% probability.
Open-source RISC-V architecture will begin to appear in budget and mid-range smartphones by 2026, potentially disrupting the ARM-dominated market, with a 60% probability.
Quantum-resistant encryption hardware will be incorporated into 20% of premium smartphone SoCs by 2026, addressing future security concerns, with a 70% probability.
3. Memory (RAM and Storage)
8GB of RAM will become the standard for mid-range smartphones by 2026, with flagship models offering up to 24GB, enabling more sophisticated multitasking, with a 90% probability.
UFS 4.0 storage will be adopted in 70% of new smartphones by 2026, offering significantly faster data transfer speeds and improved power efficiency, with an 85% probability.
512GB will become the standard storage option for mid-range smartphones by 2026, driven by increasing app sizes and media consumption, with an 80% probability.
Advanced compression technologies will allow for effective doubling of available storage space in 50% of smartphones by 2026, with a 75% probability.
Hybrid memory cube (HMC) technology will begin to appear in flagship smartphones by 2026, offering higher bandwidth and lower power consumption, with a 65% probability.
4. Camera System
Periscope zoom lenses offering 10x optical zoom will be present in 40% of flagship smartphones by 2026, with a 85% probability.
8K video recording at 60fps will become standard in premium smartphones by 2026, with a 80% probability.
Advanced computational photography powered by AI will enable features like real-time object removal and scene optimization in 70% of smartphones by 2026, with a 90% probability.
Multi-camera setups (4+ cameras) will be standard in 80% of mid-range and premium smartphones by 2026, offering versatile shooting options, with a 95% probability.
Spectral imaging capabilities for advanced AR applications and health monitoring will be present in 25% of premium smartphones by 2026, with a 70% probability.
5. Battery
Silicon anode technology will be adopted in 30% of smartphone batteries by 2026, offering up to 40% higher energy density, with a 75% probability.
100W+ fast charging will become standard in flagship smartphones by 2026, enabling full charges in under 20 minutes, with an 85% probability.
Advanced battery health monitoring and adaptive charging systems will be present in 60% of smartphones by 2026, extending overall battery lifespan, with a 90% probability.
Wireless charging speeds will reach 50W in high-end smartphones by 2026, closing the gap with wired charging, with an 80% probability.
Graphene-enhanced batteries offering improved heat dissipation and faster charging will appear in 15% of premium smartphones by 2026, with a 65% probability.
6. Connectivity Components
Wi-Fi 7 (802.11be) will be adopted in flagship smartphones by 2026, offering speeds up to 30 Gbps, with a 90% probability.
5G mmWave technology will be present in 50% of smartphones globally by 2026, enabling ultra-fast data speeds in supported areas, with an 85% probability.
Ultra-wideband (UWB) technology for precise spatial awareness will be incorporated in 60% of smartphones by 2026, with an 80% probability.
Bluetooth 5.3 or newer will be standard in all smartphones by 2026, offering improved audio quality and lower power consumption, with a 95% probability.
Satellite connectivity for emergency communications will be featured in 20% of premium smartphones by 2026, with a 70% probability.
7. Sensors
Under-display fingerprint sensors covering a larger area of the screen will be present in 60% of mid-range and premium smartphones by 2026, with a 85% probability.
Advanced health monitoring sensors (e.g., heart rate variability, blood oxygen) will be integrated into 40% of smartphones by 2026, with a 80% probability.
Improved air quality and environmental sensors will be featured in 50% of smartphones by 2026, catering to increasing health consciousness, with a 75% probability.
3D facial recognition systems for enhanced security will be present in 70% of premium smartphones by 2026, with a 90% probability.
Radar-based gesture control sensors will be incorporated in 25% of flagship smartphones by 2026, enabling touchless interactions, with a 65% probability.
8. Audio Components
Spatial audio technology will become a standard feature in 80% of smartphones by 2026, enhancing gaming and media consumption experiences, with a 90% probability.
Advanced audio AI for noise cancellation and voice enhancement during calls will be present in 70% of smartphones by 2026, with an 85% probability.
Dual speaker setups for improved stereo sound will be standard in 90% of mid-range and premium smartphones by 2026, with a 95% probability.
High-resolution audio codec support (e.g., LDAC, aptX Lossless) will be universal in smartphones by 2026, catering to audiophile consumers, with an 80% probability.
Bone conduction audio technology will be incorporated in 10% of premium smartphones by 2026, offering alternative audio output for specific use cases, with a 60% probability.
9. Casing/Materials
Recycled or bio-based materials will be used in 50% of smartphone casings by 2026, addressing sustainability concerns, with an 85% probability.
Advanced scratch-resistant coatings will be applied to 70% of smartphone screens and bodies by 2026, improving durability, with a 90% probability.
Modular design elements allowing for easier repair and component upgrades will be adopted by 20% of manufacturers by 2026, with a 75% probability.
Antimicrobial coatings will be applied to 40% of smartphone exteriors by 2026, addressing hygiene concerns, with an 80% probability.
Smart materials that change color or texture based on environmental factors or user preferences will appear in 10% of premium smartphones by 2026, with a 60% probability.
Future By Component
Display Technology Evolution
The future of smartphone displays is set for significant advancements by 2026. Premium smartphones will predominantly feature variable refresh rate OLED displays, ranging from 1 to 120Hz, optimizing both user experience and battery life. This technology, expected in 80% of premium devices, will provide smoother scrolling and more responsive touch interactions while intelligently conserving power. Concurrently, the push for full-screen experiences will drive the adoption of under-display camera technology in about a third of flagship models, eliminating the need for notches or punch-holes and providing an uninterrupted display area. The foldable display market is poised for growth, potentially capturing 15% of the premium segment, which will necessitate significant changes in supply chains and manufacturing processes. To enhance usability, advanced anti-reflective and anti-fingerprint coatings will become standard on most smartphone displays, improving outdoor visibility and user satisfaction. Looking towards the cutting edge, Micro-LED display technology may begin to emerge in ultra-premium smartphones, offering unprecedented brightness and energy efficiency, although this technology's adoption remains less certain.
Processor/SoC Advancements
The heart of smartphones, the processor or System on a Chip (SoC), is set for a quantum leap in capabilities. By 2026, half of all flagship smartphones are likely to be powered by chips built on a 3nm process node, delivering significant performance and efficiency gains. The integration of artificial intelligence into everyday smartphone use will be ubiquitous, with dedicated AI processors becoming standard across all price ranges, enabling advanced on-device AI capabilities. The architecture of these chips will evolve towards heterogeneous computing, combining CPU, GPU, and NPU on a single chip to optimize performance and power consumption. In a potential shift that could disrupt the market, open-source RISC-V architecture may start appearing in budget and mid-range smartphones, challenging ARM's dominance. Security will also be a key focus, with quantum-resistant encryption hardware being incorporated into a significant portion of premium smartphone SoCs to address future security concerns.
Memory and Storage Expansion
The memory and storage capabilities of smartphones are set to expand dramatically by 2026. Mid-range smartphones will likely standardize on 8GB of RAM, with flagship models offering up to a whopping 24GB, enabling more sophisticated multitasking and app performance. Storage technology will see a significant upgrade with the widespread adoption of UFS 4.0, offering faster data transfer speeds and improved power efficiency. The standard storage capacity for mid-range smartphones is expected to reach 512GB, driven by increasing app sizes and media consumption habits. To further extend storage capabilities, advanced compression technologies may effectively double the available storage space in many smartphones. At the cutting edge, we may see the emergence of Hybrid Memory Cube (HMC) technology in flagship devices, promising even higher bandwidth and lower power consumption.
Camera System Innovations
Smartphone camera systems will continue to be a key differentiator and area of innovation. Periscope zoom lenses offering 10x optical zoom are expected to become common in flagship models, enabling high-quality long-range photography. Video capabilities will reach new heights with 8K recording at 60fps becoming standard in premium devices. The role of AI in photography will expand significantly, with advanced computational photography enabling features like real-time object removal and scene optimization in the majority of smartphones. Multi-camera setups with four or more cameras will become the norm in mid-range and premium smartphones, offering users a variety of shooting options. Perhaps most intriguingly, spectral imaging capabilities may emerge in premium smartphones, opening up new possibilities for augmented reality applications and health monitoring features.
Battery and Charging Advancements
Battery technology and charging capabilities are set for substantial improvements. Silicon anode technology is expected to be adopted in a significant portion of smartphone batteries, offering up to 40% higher energy density. Fast charging will reach new speeds, with 100W+ charging becoming standard in flagship smartphones, enabling full charges in under 20 minutes. To address battery longevity concerns, advanced battery health monitoring and adaptive charging systems will become widespread, extending overall battery lifespan. Wireless charging will continue to close the gap with wired charging, potentially reaching speeds of 50W in high-end devices. On the cutting edge, we may see the introduction of graphene-enhanced batteries in premium smartphones, offering improved heat dissipation and even faster charging capabilities.
Connectivity Enhancements
Connectivity will see major advancements to support increasing data demands and new use cases. Wi-Fi 7 adoption in flagship smartphones will enable speeds up to 30 Gbps, revolutionizing local wireless connections. 5G mmWave technology is expected to be present in half of all smartphones globally, enabling ultra-fast data speeds in supported areas. Ultra-wideband (UWB) technology will become more prevalent, enhancing spatial awareness for a variety of applications. Bluetooth technology will continue to evolve, with version 5.3 or newer becoming standard, offering improved audio quality and lower power consumption. In a significant development for remote and emergency communications, satellite connectivity may be featured in a portion of premium smartphones, enhancing safety and connectivity in areas without traditional cellular coverage.
Sensor Advancements
Smartphone sensors will become more sophisticated and diverse. Under-display fingerprint sensors covering larger screen areas will become common in mid-range and premium smartphones, enhancing both security and user convenience. Health monitoring capabilities will expand significantly, with advanced sensors for metrics like heart rate variability and blood oxygen levels being integrated into many devices. Environmental awareness will also be a focus, with improved air quality and other environmental sensors featuring in many smartphones. For enhanced security, 3D facial recognition systems will become prevalent in premium devices. On the cutting edge, we may see the incorporation of radar-based gesture control sensors in some flagship smartphones, enabling new forms of touchless interaction.
Audio Enhancements
Audio capabilities in smartphones are set for significant improvements. Spatial audio technology is expected to become a standard feature in most smartphones, enhancing gaming and media consumption experiences. Advanced audio AI will be widely adopted, improving noise cancellation and voice enhancement during calls. Dual speaker setups for improved stereo sound will become ubiquitous in mid-range and premium smartphones. To cater to audiophile consumers, support for high-resolution audio codecs will become universal. In a more niche development, bone conduction audio technology may be incorporated in some premium smartphones, offering alternative audio output for specific use cases.
Casing and Materials Innovation
The physical construction of smartphones will evolve with a focus on sustainability and functionality. Recycled or bio-based materials are expected to be used in half of all smartphone casings, addressing growing sustainability concerns. Durability will be enhanced with advanced scratch-resistant coatings being applied to most smartphone screens and bodies. A shift towards repairability and longevity may see the adoption of modular design elements by some manufacturers, allowing for easier repairs and component upgrades. In response to hygiene concerns, antimicrobial coatings may be applied to many smartphone exteriors. At the cutting edge of design, we may see the emergence of smart materials in some premium smartphones that can change color or texture based on environmental factors or user preferences.
Appendix: Smartphone Component Vendors by Category
1. Display
Samsung Display
LG Display
BOE Technology
Japan Display Inc. (JDI)
Sharp
AU Optronics
Tianma Microelectronics
Visionox
TCL CSOT
E Ink Holdings
Royole
Truly International Holdings
Innolux
EDO
Novares
Skyworth
2. Processor/SoC (System on a Chip)
Qualcomm
Apple
MediaTek
Samsung LSI
HiSilicon (Huawei)
UNISOC
Nvidia
AMD
Intel
Rockchip
Allwinner Technology
Spreadtrum Communications
NXP Semiconductors
Marvell Technology Group
Broadcom
Realtek Semiconductor
Amlogic
SiFive (RISC-V)
Xiaomi (Surge)
OPPO
3. Memory (RAM and Storage)
Samsung Electronics
SK Hynix
Micron Technology
Western Digital
Kioxia (formerly Toshiba Memory)
Intel
Nanya Technology
Winbond Electronics
Macronix International
YMTC
Powerchip Technology
Kingston Technology
Rambus
Crucial (Micron)
ADATA Technology
Transcend Information
Apacer
Silicon Power
Team Group
Patriot Memory
4. Camera System
Sony
Samsung LSI
OmniVision Technologies
ON Semiconductor
SK Hynix
Panasonic
Sharp
Toshiba
STMicroelectronics
Galaxycore
PixArt Imaging
Chicony Electronics
Q Technology
Cowell E Holdings
Truly Opto-Electronics
LG Innotek
Largan Precision (Lenses)
Sunny Optical (Lenses)
Ofilm (Modules)
Luxvisions Innovation
5. Battery
Samsung SDI
LG Energy Solution
Panasonic
ATL (Amperex Technology Limited)
BYD
CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology)
TDK
Murata Manufacturing
Sony
Maxell
Lishen Battery
BAK Battery
Coslight Technology
Desay Battery
Sunwoda Electronic
Tianjin Lishen Battery
EVE Energy
Guangzhou Great Power Energy
Highpower International
VARTA Microbattery
6. Connectivity Components
Qualcomm
Broadcom
MediaTek
Intel
Skyworks Solutions
Qorvo
Murata Manufacturing
TDK
NXP Semiconductors
Texas Instruments
u-blox
Nordic Semiconductor
Silicon Labs
Cypress Semiconductor (Infineon)
Marvell Technology Group
Realtek Semiconductor
Espressif Systems
Redpine Signals
Telit Communications
Sierra Wireless
7. Sensors
STMicroelectronics
Bosch Sensortec
InvenSense (TDK)
AMS AG
Sony
Panasonic
Infineon Technologies
Knowles Electronics
Omron
TE Connectivity
Sensirion
Memsic
Murata Manufacturing
Kionix (ROHM)
mCube
Melexis
Maxim Integrated
Vishay Intertechnology
Analog Devices
NXP Semiconductors
8. Audio Components
Cirrus Logic
Realtek Semiconductor
Qualcomm
AKM Semiconductor
ESS Technology
Knowles Electronics
AAC Technologies
Goertek
Hosiden
Analog Devices
Texas Instruments
NXP Semiconductors
Maxim Integrated
STMicroelectronics
Infineon Technologies
Synaptics
Skyworks Solutions
Rohm Semiconductor
ON Semiconductor
Dialog Semiconductor
9. Casing/Materials
Foxconn
Jabil
Catcher Technology
BYD Electronic
Lens Technology
Biel Crystal
Luxshare Precision
Lumentum
II-VI Incorporated
Corning (Glass)
AGC Inc. (Asahi Glass)
Dow Chemical Company
3M
DuPont
Henkel
BASF
Mitsubishi Chemical
Evonik Industries
Covestro
Sabic
Chips in a Smartphone by Category
1. Main Processing Unit
Application Processor (part of SoC)
Graphics Processing Unit (GPU, often integrated into SoC)
Digital Signal Processor (DSP, often integrated into SoC)
Neural Processing Unit (NPU) or AI Accelerator
2. Memory and Storage
RAM (e.g., LPDDR4, LPDDR5)
Flash Storage (e.g., UFS, eMMC)
Cache Memory
3. Connectivity
Cellular Modem (often integrated into SoC)
Wi-Fi Chip
Bluetooth Chip
NFC (Near Field Communication) Chip
GPS/GNSS Receiver
FM Radio Chip (if applicable)
4. Power Management
Power Management Integrated Circuit (PMIC)
Battery Charging IC
Voltage Regulators
5. Audio
Audio Codec
Audio Amplifier
6. Display
Display Driver IC
Touch Controller IC
7. Camera
Image Signal Processor (ISP, often integrated into SoC)
Camera Control IC
8. Sensors
Accelerometer
Gyroscope
Magnetometer (Compass)
Proximity Sensor
Ambient Light Sensor
Fingerprint Sensor IC
Barometer IC (if applicable)
9. Security
Secure Element
Trusted Platform Module (TPM)
10. Wireless Charging (if applicable)
Wireless Charging Receiver IC
11. Data/Peripheral Interface
USB Controller
HDMI Controller (if applicable)
12. Specialized Chips (may be present in some high-end devices)
LiDAR or ToF (Time of Flight) Sensor IC
UWB (Ultra-Wideband) Chip
Dedicated Crypto-Processing Unit
Dedicated Video Encoding/Decoding Chip
13. Antenna Tuning
Antenna Tuning IC
14. Vibration
Haptic Driver IC