Strategic Planning Assumptions for B2C
Mobile commerce will account for 75% of all B2C e-commerce transactions globally by 2030, with total mobile commerce sales reaching $5 trillion annually (Probability 0.8).
Top justification: 9/10. Given the rapid growth of mobile device usage and the increasing convenience of mobile shopping, it is highly likely that by 2030, mobile commerce will dominate the B2C e-commerce landscape, accounting for the majority of transactions globally and reaching unprecedented sales volumes.
By 2031, voice commerce will represent 30% of B2C e-commerce sales in developed markets, driven by advancements in natural language processing and smart home devices (Probability 0.7).
Top justification: 8/10. As voice assistants become more sophisticated and widely adopted in households through smart home devices, voice commerce has the potential to capture a significant share of B2C e-commerce sales, particularly in developed markets where consumers are more accustomed to these technologies.
AR and VR technologies will be used in 50% of online shopping experiences by 2029, reducing return rates by 25% in categories like apparel and home decor (Probability 0.65).
Top justification: With the increasing popularity and capabilities of augmented reality and virtual reality technologies in enhancing the online shopping experience, it is probable that these immersive technologies will be widely adopted by retailers to reduce product return rates, especially in categories where fit and appearance are crucial factors in purchase decisions.
By 2032, social commerce will account for 40% of all B2C e-commerce sales globally, with the total social commerce market size reaching $3 trillion (Probability 0.75).
Top justification: As social media platforms continue to integrate e-commerce features and consumers increasingly turn to these platforms for product discovery and purchases, it is highly likely that social commerce will capture a significant portion of the global B2C e-commerce market.
By 2030, 80% of B2C brands will offer some form of direct-to-consumer channel, disrupting traditional retail models and increasing profit margins by an average of 20% (Probability 0.6).
Top justification:
With the growing demand for personalized and convenient shopping experiences, many B2C brands will likely adopt direct-to-consumer (D2C) strategies to establish stronger relationships with their customers and improve profit margins by eliminating intermediaries.