Strategic Planning Assumptions: Qubits
Superconducting Qubits
Performance and Scalability: By 2028, there is an 80% probability that superconducting quantum computers will demonstrate quantum advantage in at least five commercial applications, including optimization, materials science, financial modeling, drug discovery, and cryptography. This will be driven by improvements in qubit coherence times to over 1 millisecond and two-qubit gate fidelities exceeding 99.9%.
Error Correction and Logical Qubits: With 70% likelihood, by 2030, a fault-tolerant logical qubit using superconducting technology will be demonstrated, with an error rate at least two orders of magnitude lower than its constituent physical qubits. This breakthrough will pave the way for scalable, error-corrected quantum computing.
Cryogenic Control Electronics: There is a 75% chance that by 2029, fully integrated cryogenic control systems operating at 4K or below will be developed, capable of controlling over 1,000 qubits with significantly reduced wiring complexity and heat load. This will be a crucial enabler for scaling beyond 1,000 qubits.
Fabrication and Manufacturing: By 2031, there is a 65% probability that advanced lithography and materials deposition techniques will enable the production of superconducting qubit chips with over 5,000 qubits, with qubit-to-qubit variation reduced to less than 1%. This will significantly improve the yield and reliability of large-scale quantum processors.
System Integration and Packaging: With 60% likelihood, by 2032, 3D integration and packaging technologies will allow for the creation of modular superconducting quantum processors with over 10,000 qubits, including integrated control and readout systems. This will be a key step towards achieving quantum computers capable of solving real-world problems beyond the reach of classical computers.
Market Adoption and Industry Impact: By 2033, there is a 70% chance that superconducting qubit technology will capture 45% of the quantum computing market share, with at least three Fortune 500 companies incorporating superconducting quantum computers into their core business processes for competitive advantage.
Novel Qubit Designs: There is a 55% chance that by 2029, a new superconducting qubit design (such as fluxonium or noise-protected qubits) will emerge as a serious contender to the transmon, offering at least an order of magnitude improvement in coherence time while maintaining or improving gate fidelities.
Comparison to Other Qubit Technologies
Trapped Ion Qubits: By 2030, there is a 65% probability that trapped ion quantum computers will achieve comparable or superior performance to superconducting qubits in terms of gate fidelities and coherence times, but will face greater challenges in scaling beyond 100 qubits due to ion trapping and control complexities.
Silicon Spin Qubits: With 60% likelihood, by 2032, silicon spin qubits will demonstrate superior scalability compared to superconducting qubits, potentially reaching 10,000+ qubit arrays, but may still lag in terms of gate fidelities and quantum volume.
Neutral Atom Qubits: There is a 50% chance that by 2031, neutral atom quantum computers will surpass superconducting qubits in terms of qubit count and connectivity, especially for quantum simulation applications, but may struggle to match the gate fidelities and general-purpose capabilities of superconducting systems.
Photonic Qubits: By 2030, with 70% probability, photonic quantum computers will become the leading platform for quantum communication and networking applications, potentially integrating with superconducting qubit systems to create hybrid quantum networks.
Cross-Cutting Assumptions
Quantum-Classical Hybrid Systems: With 80% probability, by 2030, quantum-classical hybrid algorithms running on superconducting quantum computers with 1,000+ qubits will demonstrate a clear advantage over classical-only approaches in at least one industry-relevant application, such as portfolio optimization or supply chain management.
Quantum Networking: By 2032, with 60% probability, superconducting qubit-based quantum repeaters will enable the first demonstration of a multi-node quantum network spanning at least 100 km, laying the groundwork for future quantum internet applications.
Resource Efficiency: There is a 70% likelihood that by 2031, advancements in qubit control and readout techniques will reduce the power consumption and physical footprint of superconducting quantum computers by at least 50% compared to 2023 systems of equivalent qubit count, making them more viable for data center integration.
These reorganized strategic planning assumptions provide a comprehensive view of the expected developments in superconducting qubit technology while also offering comparisons to competing qubit technologies. This structure allows for a clearer understanding of the relative strengths and challenges of each approach, as well as the potential for hybrid systems and cross-platform applications.